Речь о том, что до сих пор кажется все еще не известно - мне напоминаю всего лишь до сих пор не известно было, что разумеется ничего не означает - случаев, когда в канун с очевидностью надвигающейся "большой войны" руководитель страны сам вывел бы "в расход" бОльшую часть командного состав своей армии.

Как-то в былом форуме политру обсуждали  ... вот так же наверное разносторонне, как оно и тут нынче снова вопрос в разных местах lj возникает - и все ту же тему:

Еремей 08/08/1999, 13:13

Трурль: Вопрос - сколько процентов офицеров Красной Армии было уничтожено во время чисток? Ответ - от 2 до 4% ... Называть это обезглавливанием мягко говоря, нечестно

вы, верно, смеетесь? Были расстреляны:

3 из 5 маршалов
14 из 16 командармов 1-го и 2-го рангов
8 из 8 флагманов 1-го и 2-го рангов (т.е. адмиралов)
60 из 67 комкоров
136 из 199 комдивов
221 из 397 комбригов,
а также все 11 заместителей наркома обороны и 75 из 89 членов Высшего военного совета.

Р.Конквест, "Большой террор" (Edizon Aurora, Firense, 1974, с.892)

Интерес потому что нынче полагал бы что уже теперь заметно больший представляет - под пластами эпох с той поры состоявшихся событий - вовсе не то, кто там был тогда прав из участников политического процесса в стране, Европе или мире в целом, и уж вовсе конечно же не в моральных из дали веков оценках какой-либо из сторон вопрос. Более того, можно сказать что и даже не в сути самых ближайших тогда - или пусть более затем отдаленных - итогов принимавшихся кем-либо тогда тех или иных решений. Совсем и с иной стороны теперь уже видимо тоже имело бы смысл попытаться понять те события.

Представляется, что по градациям теперь уже узко научной ценности - "внеполитической", если конечно допустить, что такое хотя бы теоретически в науке истории возможно - из всего спектра вопросов развития того периода вхождения мира в WW2 в конечном счете заметно выделяется именно вышепоставленный.

А именно - известны ли (пусть хотя бы только в пИсаной части истории мира) какие-либо еще до того состаявшиеся иные прецеденты, когда одна из крупнейших мировых держав эпохи в канун с очевидностью всем ее гражданам неотвратимо надвигающейся на неё мировой войны начинает методично и планомерно - волей единоличного её того времени руководителя - "выводить в расход" в буквальном смысле этого слова под корень (вместе с чадами и дочадцами - так называемые, "ЧСИР") высшего эшелона управления командный состав своей армии?

Про этот вопрос хотелось бы для начала хоть что-то понять. Посмотреть на иные - пусть и не сопоставимых масштабов но все-таки близкого смысла - примеры, если они в истории в сам деле окажется что были. Если же окажется что их нет, то и тем более выдвигается в таком случае пласт труднейших вопросов - в чем же тогда суть, сама по себе специфика тех не известных до того истории как оказалось событий кануна WW2?

__________________
PS. Относительно же природы тех типовых статистических приемов, которые применяют иногда вовсе не только в онлайновой полемике для получения иной раз в данном контексте называемых - в том числе и в диалоге вышецитированном то опять прозвучало - умеренных (от 2 до 4 процентов) цифр "довоенных потерь" комсостава РККА, пояснял тогда же:

Out 16/08/1999, 10:09: ... складывая в одну общую кучу суммарное число офицеров от маршалов и комбригов до комвзода и комроты, ... получить таким нехитрым образом общий итог истребленных "лишь" в 3 - 4 процента ...

Arabs are nearly twice as likely as the typical U.S. resident to possess a college degree — 41 percent to 24 percent. Better education typically translates into higher income, and that was highlighted in the report: The median income for an Arab family was $52,300, about $2,300 more than the median income for all U.S. families.

The proportion of U.S. Arabs working in management jobs was higher than the U.S. average, 42 percent to 34 percent.

Census: Arabs in U.S. Tend to Be Affluent, Mar 8, 4:42 PM ET. Asociated Press

The 2004 Corruption Perceptions Index

Surveys Used refers to the number of surveys that assessed a country's
performance. A total of 18 surveys and expert assessments were used, and at
least three surveys were required for a country to be included in the CPI.

Standard Deviation indicates differences in the values of the sources.
As indicated by colors, values below 0.5 indicate agreement, values between
0.5 and 0.9 indicate some agreement, while values equal
or larger than 1 indicate disagreement.

High-Low Range provides the highest and lowest values of the different
sources.

90 percent confidence range provides a range of possible values of the
CPI score. This reflects how a country's score may vary, depending on
measurement precision. With 5 percent probability the score is above this range
and with another 5 percent it is below. However, particularly when only few
sources (n) are availbale, an unbiased estimate of the mean coverage probability
is lower than the nominal value of 90%. It is 65.3% for n=3, 73.6% for n=4,
78.4% for n=5, 80.2% for n=6 and 81.8% for n=7.

Graff plans to push the issue again this spring. This time, the Wisconsin activist hopes that lawmakers will imagine themselves in that church service — cowering, crying, wishing they had a gun at hand to defend themselves. "Hopefully something positive can come out of the tragedy," Graff said...

"How many dead people is it going to take before the Legislature does the right thing and passes a concealed carry law?" asked Graff, executive director of Wisconsin Gun Owners Inc. "How much carnage is going to have to occur before the public wakes up?"

Gun-related legislation
Several states are considering new gun laws. Among the proposals:

*
Giving citizens the right to carry concealed handguns:
Illinois, Nebraska

*
Banning assault weapons or strengthening an existing ban:
Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas, Washington

*
Banning .50-caliber rifles:
Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, Washington
*

Closing the gun show loophole by requiring all gun buyers to undergo background checks:
Arizona, Illinois, Iowa, Washington

*
Expanding the rights of citizens to carry concealed handguns:
Alabama, Arizona, Indiana, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia

Los Angeles Times
Gun Violence Renews Legislative Debate
Mon Mar 21, 2005
By Stephanie Simon Times Staff Writer

The massacre at a Wisconsin church service 10 days ago left Corey Graff outraged.
Outraged at the loss of life, of course. But furious, too, at state legislators who have refused to grant citizens the right to carry concealed handguns. Graff plans to push the issue again this spring. This time, the Wisconsin activist hopes that lawmakers will imagine themselves in that church service — cowering, crying, wishing they had a gun at hand to defend themselves. "Hopefully something positive can come out of the tragedy," Graff said.

With dozens of gun-related bills working their way through state legislatures around the country, activists on both sides of the issue have come to regard a recent spate of high-profile shootings as a catalyst to advance their causes.

Deadly shootings at courthouses in Atlanta and Tyler, Texas, the slaying of a judge's family in Chicago, a horrific weekend of violence in Philadelphia and the rampage at a church service in Brookfield, Wis., form an emotional backdrop to ongoing debates in a number of state capitols.

Both sides are careful to say they do not want to politicize the incidents. Lawmakers and activists also acknowledge that the violence is unlikely to sway many votes, since politicians' positions on gun issues tend to be firmly fixed.

"I try not to form my public policy decisions in response to specific events," said Nebraska state Sen. Adrian Smith, a Republican.

Still, he said, hearing about so many brutal incidents in such quick succession "gives you pause…. You think, 'How can we try to prevent something like that from happening again?' "

Smith's answer, in part, is to push a bill that would let Nebraskans carry concealed weapons, as citizens of 46 states can. Pro-gun legislation pending elsewhere in the nation includes a measure in Utah to allow hidden handguns in cars and a bill in Tennessee that would let residents take firearms into schools, day-care centers and bars.

Plenty of gun control legislation is also on the table. Washington, Oregon, Florida and several other states are considering banning assault weapons. Connecticut, New Jersey and New York may block the sale of .50-caliber rifles, as California did last year.

The recent bloodshed "definitely has an impact" on such debates, said Jonathan Lackland, a gun control lobbyist who works Midwest statehouses. He's hoping, in particular, that the incidents motivate lawmakers to expand background checks of gun buyers. Bills to require background checks at gun shows are pending in at least four states: Arizona, Illinois, Iowa and Washington.

The rash of shootings has also inspired several pieces of new legislation.

In Illinois and Texas, lawmakers are working on bills to let judges or prosecutors carry weapons to court.

In Pennsylvania, urban legislators are pleading with their colleagues to revoke a law that blocks cities from enacting tough gun controls. They're desperate to crack down on guns in Philadelphia — where a 9-year-old was among eight people shot to death one weekend this month. Overall, homicides are up more than 9% in the city this year — and at least three-quarters of the killings involve guns.

"It's going to be an uphill battle," said state Rep. John Myers, a Philadelphia Democrat. "But when I turn on my news at 5 o'clock and I see two, three, four young people shot dead every single day, I believe that — win, lose or draw — we have to keep fighting this fight."

The passion generated by the recent shootings is focused mostly at the state level. (The only major gun bill before the U.S. Congress this session is a proposal to shield gun manufacturers from some lawsuits.)

Even before the Feb. 28 slayings of U.S. Judge Joan Humphrey Lefkow's husband and mother, Illinois had emerged as the state with the most gun legislation pending. Lawmakers are considering more than a dozen proposals, many of them backed by the National Rifle Assn.

One would lower the legal age for gun purchases from 21 to 18. Another would shield the identity of gun buyers by requiring police to destroy purchase records. Perhaps most contentious is the concealed-carry bill introduced by state Rep. Brandon Phelps, a Democrat who represents the farming and hunting country of southern Illinois.

Phelps joins a growing number of rural Democrats nationwide — in states as diverse as Pennsylvania, Washington and Missouri — willing to buck their party leadership on gun issues.

Spurred by the recent courthouse shootings and the targeting of Lefkow's family, Phelps is also working on a bill to let judges, and perhaps prosecutors, carry weapons both on and off the job.

That pleases prosecutor Tim Huyett, who works in Illinois' Logan County. Some of the killers he has put behind bars have left him with "a very uneasy feeling," he said, but he never thought he could do much about it, other than stay vigilant. Now he's going to demand the right to carry a gun for self-defense, and he's confident lawmakers will listen.

"This is a good time to get it made part of the discussion in Illinois," he said.

Matt Bingham, a prosecutor in Smith County, Texas, senses a similar shift in mood in his state.

Bingham has repeatedly been threatened by gang members flashing a "K" for kill or signaling they'd like to put a bullet through his head. But his remarks over the years that he'd like to carry a gun "didn't have the immediacy or the urgency they do now," he said.

On Feb. 24, a man in the middle of a child custody dispute opened fire with a knockoff AK-47 on the courthouse steps in Tyler. He killed his ex-wife, wounded his adult son and shot dead a man who tried to intervene by pulling out his own gun, a Colt .45. A few days later, Bingham told lawmakers he thought he needed protection in court. "They were very open," he said. "And responsive."

Texas judges are already permitted to carry concealed weapons in court; legislation is now being drafted to let prosecutors arm themselves as well.

Gun rights advocates say incidents such as the Tyler shootout will reinforce Americans' growing reluctance to view gun control laws as the only rational response to spiraling violence. In the early 1990s, the Gallup Poll reported that 71% of Americans wanted harsher restrictions on guns. A few years later, that number was down to 62%. By last fall, it had dropped to 54%.

"In a post-9/11 world, a lot of people are more apt to think about [guns in terms of] providing their own personal protection," said Todd Vandermyde, the NRA's Illinois lobbyist.

Gun control activists counter that most Americans still want tough gun laws vigorously enforced. (In last fall's Gallup Poll, 11% called for relaxing existing regulations.)

They have faith that most Americans will respond to the recent shootings by demanding an end to loopholes that make it easy to buy guns.

"When you have a lot of these incidents happening at about the same time, people start to put one and one together," said Brian Malte, outreach director for the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence, a lobbying group.

The number of people murdered by firearms across the nation jumped 14% between 1999 and 2003, the latest year that complete figures are available.

The total number of people killed by firearms (which includes suicides and accidents) has also begun to creep back up after seven consecutive years of decline during the 1990s.

A mass shooting always attracts headlines. But every day smaller incidents pass unnoticed.

Last week, a second-grader in Columbus, Ohio, brought a .45-caliber pistol to school in his book bag. He was shot in the hand when the gun accidentally discharged.

"Sooner or later, people are going to say, 'Enough is enough,' " said Toby Hoover, executive director of the Ohio Coalition Against Gun Violence.

Hoover hopes the recent rampages push voters — and lawmakers — to that tipping point.

On the other side of the debate, so does Corey Graff.

"How many dead people is it going to take before the Legislature does the right thing and passes a concealed carry law?" asked Graff, executive director of Wisconsin Gun Owners Inc. "How much carnage is going to have to occur before the public wakes up?"
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=2026&ncid=2026&e=2&u=/latimests/20050321/ts_latimes/gunviolencerenewslegislativedebate

Use of drugs to treat mental illness soars Nationwide, spending on psychiatric medications is now growing much faster than spending on other prescriptions as more mental health patients are treated with drugs rather than hospitalization, a new study has found.
Sacbee, 03/29/05

From 1991 to 2001, U.S. spending on all mental health services grew 73 percent, to $104 billion.

Use of drugs to treat mental illness soars
By Lisa Rapaport -- Bee Staff Writer
Published 2:15 am PST Tuesday, March 29, 2005

Sacramento campaign consultant Mark Capitolo credits a daily dose of anti-anxiety drugs with helping him stay "relatively sane" and out of the hospital during a difficult time in his life.

"The drugs are not going to make you happy. You are on your own in that regard. But they provide you physically with a safety net. I came around to the fact that it is no big deal to use that safety net," said Capitolo, who was first diagnosed with an anxiety disorder 15 years ago.

Nationwide, spending on psychiatric medications is now growing much faster than spending on other prescriptions as more mental health patients are treated with drugs rather than hospitalization, a new study has found.

From 1991 to 2001, U.S. spending on all mental health services grew 73 percent, to $104 billion. One-third of the $43 billion spending increase over the decade was due to outlays on retail prescription drugs for mental illness, according to the study, scheduled to be released today in Health Affairs, a health policy journal that publishes academic studies on medical finance issues.

Over the decade, spending on psychiatric prescriptions grew an average of 17.1 percent a year, while spending on hospitalization for mental illness increased by only 1 percent, according to the analysis of federal health statistics covering public and private insurance programs.

"We saw newer drugs with fewer side effects become more widely used," said one of the study authors, Joan Dilonardo, a researcher for the federal Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, which supported the survey. "There has been an increased acceptance of mental health medications and less stigma associated with seeking treatment."

Capitolo is one patient whose take on mental health medications changed with the advent of new drugs.

In 1990, he was a freshman at California State University, Sacramento, when, he said, "all of a sudden life in my head changed colors."

He started having panic attacks. His doctor prescribed desipramine, an older-generation anti-depressant that doctors now understand to be ineffective at treating anxiety.

"It was brutal. I felt like a zombie for two days. So I said 'screw this' and stopped taking it," Capitolo recalled.

Two years later, Capitolo got a prescription for Prozac, the first in a new generation of drugs called selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, or SSRIs. Prozac and other SSRIs can treat a broad range of depression and anxiety disorders by boosting levels of serotonin in the brain.

'Capitolo said he might have been hospitalized last year, when both his parents died within a six-month period. Instead, medication and counseling saw him through that terrible year.

Today, SSRIs account for $11.2 billion a year in U.S. prescription sales, or nearly 5 percent of the $228 billion domestic prescription drug market, according to pharmaceutical research firm NDC Health.

In the Sacramento region, doctors credit newer drugs and improved outpatient mental health programs with reducing the need to hospitalize psychiatric patients. Increasingly, depression is treated with medications prescribed by primary care physicians.

Over the past decade, Kaiser Permanente has decreased spending on mental health hospital services to allocate more resources for outpatient care, said Andrea Hedin, chief of outpatient psychiatry at Kaiser Permanente South Sacramento Medical Center.

Kaiser has tripled the size of its outpatient programs to treat depression, panic disorder and obsessive-compulsive disorder, Hedin said. At the same time, Kaiser has also developed an intensive outpatient therapy program to give five hours of counseling three days a week to many patients who once might have been hospitalized for treatment.

"We are finding better ways to treat people without keeping them overnight," Hedin says. "It saves money, and it also benefits patients and their families."

The study comes amid continuing debate over the effectiveness of prescription medications in treating mental health conditions. New analyses of clinical trials in children last year prompted the FDA to require a black box warning on labels that SSRI medications could increase the risk of suicide.

Many leading psychiatrists and groups such as the American Psychiatric Association defend the use of SSRIs in treating adults, particularly when paired with counseling.

Some patients, especially those who are suicidal or homicidal, will always need hospital care, said James Margolis, a psychiatrist at Sutter Health. But in some cases, newer drugs can lead to shorter hospital stays, he said.

"I would say there is still some stigma to seeking treatment for mental illness. But there is less stigma and there are better drugs," Margolis said. "More people are going to get the help they need without being hospitalized."

В России с этим боролись и до сих пор успешно борятся одним средством- алкоголем... Но алкоголь не только вызывает приывыкание но и уничтожает внутренние органы. Хотя процент алкаголизма, если посмотрите даные, в Америке тоже вырос. То есть с одной стороны конечно реклама и врачи, но в основном они meet the legitimate demand на такие средства, т.к. у людей зачастую есть выбор-либо нервничать при обстоятельствах на которые ты не можешь повлиять, либо принять курс антидепрессанта. При этом Вы видимо человек с абсолютно здоровой психикой который с своими anxiety attacks может справится сам. Но, поверьте мне, такие не все.

Эволюция критериев технологического развития промышленно развитых стран:
от всеобщей грамотности ... к всеобщему авторству.

"We need to realize that the next generation of people have a different set of expectations of the kind of news they will get," Murdoch told a luncheon crowd at the American Society of Newspaper Editors conference on Wednesday, "including when and how they will get it, and who they will get it from."

Citing a list of statistics that show fewer people are reading print newspapers but more are on the Web, Murdoch told the assembled hundreds of editors that online news reporting should be embraced, not feared...

44% of news consumers between 18 and 34 use the Internet once a day for news, compared to 19% who use a printed newspapers. In the future, he said, 39% expected to use the Internet more, compared to 8% who expected to use newspapers more. He also said only 9% describe newspapers as trustworthy, 8% as useful, and 4 % as entertaining. "Four out of every five Americans in 1964 read a newspaper every day; today only half do," the News Corporation chairman said. "In the face of this revolution, we have been slow to react. We have sat by and watched while our newspapers have lost circulation."

Although Murdoch publishes only one newspaper in the United States, the New York Post, he owns more than 175 English-language papers worldwide, including The Times of London and a number of papers in Australia, where his News Corporation stated as a newspaper company.

"Scarcely a day goes by that someone does not claim that technology writes newspapers' obituary," Murdoch observed. "I didn't do as much as I should have after all the [Internet] excitement of the late 1990s. I thought this thing called the digital revolution would just limp along. Well, it hasn't. It is a fast-developing reality that we should grasp to improve our journalism and expand our reach."...

Murdoch stressed that young people are showing they do not want to read print papers in the same way their parents do and are not likely to change. He cited author Philip Meyer's prediction that "the last reader will recycle the last newspaper in 2040 -- April 2040, to be precise."

"Unless we awaken to these changes, we will as an industry be relegated to the status of also-rans," Murdoch said. "There is an opportunity to improve our journalism and expand our reach. Not one newspaper in this room lacks a Web site, but how many of us can say we are taking maximum advantage of our Web sites?"

He said young people "still want news and we are uniquely positioned to deliver that news. We have unique content to differentiate ourselves. The challenge, however, is to deliver that news in the way consumers want to receive it>."

In addition, newspapers need to realize that younger readers, and others who access online outlets more, also want different news than their parents or grandparents. "They don't just want to know how events in the Middle East will affect the presidential election," Murdoch stressed, "but how it will affect prices as the gas pump."


"I fear technology, and our response to it, is by no means our only challenge. What I worry about much more is our ability to make the cultural changes. We are too out of touch with our readers. We worry too much about whether we have the story than whether anyone wants the story." ...

But he stressed that charging for Web content is not a good idea. "I don't hold out any hopes for people to be paying for our Internet sites," he said in response to a question. "They have to be popular enough to hold a lot of advertising."

He then suggested that editors "create a Web site compelling enough to make [it] a reader's home page. It can't just be a bland repurposing of print content. Experiment with the concept of using bloggers. There are risks, chief among them, maintaining our standards of fairness and objectivity." But, he added, "the threat of losing print advertising dollars to Internet advertising is very real; in fact it is already happening."

Although he offered no specifics about how newspapers can boost the Web product, he said it is not something editors can put off any longer.

"In the newspaper business it would be disastrous if it is not addressed," he said about the web changes. "Success in the online world will beget greater success in the print medium. We can and must begin to assimilate to their culture."

Murdoch: Newspapers Must Stop Fearing Web,
Wed Apr 13, 7:07 PM ET

... по поводу SUV... Судя по прессе, справедливый гнев народа направлен против машин у которых 1) достаточно высокий потолок, чтобы сидеть в цилиндре, 2) нет отгороженного багажного отсека сзади, 3) машина - не грузовичок. Все!!! Нет других критериев!

Что это дает нам на практике? Например, Ваша жена на дух не переносит SUV, но вы хотите, чтобы в случае аварии ее шансы выжить были в 3 раза выше, чем в малолитражке. Отбросим "мужские" non-SUV варианты: грузовик, лимузин, Hammer (такой большой, что просто не поместился в понятие SUV, судя по прессе) - и купим жене Cadillac.

Ни один SUV-поноситель ни слова не скажет в ее адрес, и в то же время преимущества в случае аварии очевидны: вес у любой модели Cadillac - больше, чем у любого SUV, перед мотором смонтирована треугольная сварная железная конструкция навроде тарана, бамперы такие, что снеся фонарный столб - только поцарапаешь краску.

• Revolutionary War - 42 percent
  
• Civil War (Union Force) - 33 percent
  
• World War I - 21 percent
  
• World War II - 30 percent
  
• Korean War - 25 percent
  
• Vietnam - 24 percent
  
• Desert Storm - 24 percent
  
• Operation Iraqi Freedom - 10 percent
  

As of 251730C FEB 91. OPERATION DESERT SHIELD/STORM CASUALTY REPORTING
1. The XVIII Airborne Corps has the following casualties during
Operation DESERT SHIELD ending 16 Jan 91:

Non-combat deaths - 16
Non-combat injuries - 4,517

2. The XVIII Airborne Corps has had the +allowing casualties during
Operation DESERT Storm, Phase II operations, 17 Jan - 23 Feb 91:

KIA - 2, OH-58C crash, 24th ID, 21 Feb 91
WIA - 3d ACR boarder clash
MIA - Ist COSCOM, truck drivers in the vicinity of

Kha+ji. The BBC report of them being found dead is unconfirmed. A
check with COSCOM and Corps Casualty still list the two soldiers as
MIA.

Non-combat deaths - 8
Non-combat injuries - 75
Non-combat loss due to disease - 4

3. The XVIII Airborne Corps has haia no reported casualties during
Operation DESERT STORM, Phase III operations commencing an 24 Feb 91.

NOTE: VII Corps has no reported casualties during Operation DESERT
STORM, Phase III operations commencing on 24 Feb 91.

• Wealth estimates derived from 1998 Federal estate tax return data shows that more than 6.5 million individuals in the United States had gross assets of $625,000 or more.
  
  
• These individuals represented about 3.4 percent of the U.S. adult population.
  
  
• As a group, top wealth holders owned more than $11.1 trillion in total assets or 32.6 percent of the total U.S. personal asset holdings.
  
  
• California remains the state with the largest number of millionaires, while
  Connecticut was the state with the greatest per capita concentration of millionaires.
  
  Source: IRS Issues Winter 2003 Statistics of Income Bulletin
  IR-2003-53, April 18, 2003

The number of millionaire households in the United States grew in 2004 to a record 7.5 million, up 21 percent in one year, according to surveys cited in the May 25 Wall Street Journal. This very wealthy segment of the population now controls an astounding $11 trillion in assets.

Source: http://www.wsws.org/articles/2005/jun2005/mill-j08.shtml

NEW YORK, June 15, 2004 — ... were an estimated 7.7 million high net worth individuals in the world at the end of 2003, up 7.5% or a net 500,000 people compared with the previous year, according to the 2004 World Wealth Report published today by Capgemini and Merrill Lynch.

The total global wealth of these high net worth individuals (HNWIs) climbed 7.7% to $28.8 trillion, according to the survey.

HNWIs are people with financial assets of at least US$1million,
excluding home real estate.

The trend for continued increases in worldwide wealth should stay intact with the World Wealth Report predicting HNWI financial wealth to grow by 7% per annum and to exceed $40 trillion by 2008.

The ranks of HNWIs in the United States stood at 2,270,000 at the end of 2003, up 14% or a net 272,000 compared with the previous year. China , at 12%, and India , at 22%, also scored solid gains in HNWIs last year, while Europe , the Middle East and Latin America posted more modest increases.

“As in previous years, high net worth individuals were quick to respond to global trends affecting their ability to preserve and grow wealth. They benefited from a strong stock market rally and solid, global economic growth. In particular, wealthy investors in the U.S. , China and India were able to capitalize on these trends despite a great deal of geopolitical uncertainty,” said James Gorman, president of Merrill Lynch’s Global Private Client group.

Europe , Latin America and the Middle Eastlagged

While the ranks of the wealthy swelled in Asia and North America , Europe showed a more modest increase, with the number of HNWIs rising 2.4% to 2.6 million. Wealth in the region climbed to $8.7 trillion. Europe as a whole continues to sustain lower average HNWI wealth than North America , primarily due to restrictive income-tax policies which impede the ability to accumulate personal wealth. Spain , Russia and the Czech Republic were notable exceptions where the wealthy investor count increased more rapidly.

Latin America fared better in 2003 than it did the previous year, but growth was relatively low both in HNWI numbers and wealth despite the impressive gains in equity markets across the region. Latin American HNWIs, whose ranks edged up 1.3%, continued to have the highest average wealth per HNWI of any major region.

The number of HNWIs in the Middle East rose 2.4% last year.

Source: Merrill Lynch, Capgemini 2004 World Wealth Report

In 1935, a new weekly column appeared in newspapers across the country. "America Speaks" promised to report what the public thought about the issues of the day through nationwide public opinion polls.

The surveys were conducted by a Princeton, New Jersey company called the American Institute of Public Opinion recently founded by George Gallup...

For example, was it indecent for women to wear shorts on the street in 1939? Sixty-three percent of respondents said yes.

What about topless bathing suits for men? Apparently they were okay, although 33 percent still found them indecent as late as 1939.

Did Americans approve of a married woman working if she had a husband capable of supporting her? No, and by a wide margin; 78 percent disapproved in the Depression year of 1938...

следует ли женщине работать, если муж в состоянии прокормить семью?

GEORGE GALLUP, JR.: I would say that the 1936 election really put the so-called scientific pollsters on the map -- my father, George Gallup, Archibald Crossley and Elmo Roper -- because it was a very dramatic demonstration of the power of -- rather, the accuracy of scientific polling versus other kinds of surveys that relied on sheer numbers or, you know, samples that weren't representative...

My dad thought that polls were absolutely vital to a democracy. He felt that polls were extremely important because it removed the power from lobbying groups and from smoke-filled rooms and let the public into the act. It was a way to let the public speak.

Copyright © 1995 - 2005 Public Broadcasting Service (PBS)

• Факторы риска на автомобильной дороге: основные причины фатальных автопроисшествий на примере американских автомагистралей.
  
• Факторы риска на автомобильной дороге. Часть 2 - общественная цена личной безопасности: на примере машин класса SUV.

FRONTAL CRASHWORTHINESS RATINGS
Number of vehicles in offset crash tests, by yr. test results were released



©1996-2005, Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, Highway Loss Data Institute

Since the Institute began frontal offset crash testing the mid-1990s, automakers have designed their cars to earn better ratings. Half or more of the vehicles in 1995-96 earned marginal or poor ratings. In contrast, virtually all vehicles in 2002-03 are rated good, and none is marginal or poor. Occupants in real-world frontal crashes of the newer models with good ratings can expect better protection.

Поэтому воспроизвожу ниже информацию о годовом пробеге израильских автомобилей, чтобы затем провести уже более аккуратное сравнения с США и др. странами относительной безопасности их дорог:

... за прошлый год израильтяне проехали около 40 млрд км, что на 2.4% больше, чем годом ранее... средний годовой пробег одного израильского автомобиля составлял в 2004 году 19.9 тыс км (как и в 2003-ем), при этом легковые автомобили проезжали в среднем 16 тыс км, дизельные грузовики - 37 тыс км, автобусы - 69.8 тыс км, а мотоциклы - всего 9.8 тыс км. (c)ISRALAND

В государстве Израиль происходит за год порядка 500 автодорожных происшествий с фатальным исходом. Поэтому приближенная оценка автомобильных дорог Израиля по вышеуказанному критерию (весьма и весьма - надо это видимо еще и еще раз подчеркнуть - приближенная это будет оценка, так как в отличии от данных по дорогам США не встречал до сих пор на Вебе достаточно полной по годам статистики безопасности дорог Израиля) оказывается на уровне 500 происшествиий с фатальным исходом / 25 млрд миль = 2 происшествия с фатальным исходом на каждые 100 миллионов миль пробега усредненного израильского автомобиля.

Приведем для сравнения выдержку из ранее по данной теме опубликованной статьи (таблица 9) - где сопоставлялись показатели безопасности дорог некоторых из стран - которые предоставляют об том сведения в вышеуказанных единицах риска автомобилиста на их дорогах - включив в этот ряд теперь уже и сведения о дорогах Святой Земли тоже (со времен первого издания Библии это место кажется традиционно считается наиболее общепринятым для сопоставления всего со всем, и дороги соответственно тоже наверное не исключение).

Таблица 9. Сопоставление показателей относительной опасности автокатастрофы на единицу численности населения и единицу пути пробега автомобиля

 

	Погибают на сто тысяч населения	Погибают на сто миллионов пройденных в машине миль	В таблице слева приводятся для сравнения показателей безопасности движения по разным странам для двух статистических параметров, их характеризующих : 1) наиболее распостраненный -- в самой общей формулировке показатель -- число погибших в автопроисшествиях на 100 тыс. населения; 2) число погибших на сто миллионов пробега автомобиля. Только последний показатель позволяет проводить реальные межстрановые сравнения безопасности движения, так как ни показатель числа погибших на сто тысяч населения, ни даже несколько более точно отражающий суть сравнения -- на сто тысяч машин, -- не дают объективной оценки.
Швеция	6,7	1,2
Англия	6,8	1,4
Финляндия	7,7	1,5
США	16	1,5
Голландия	6,8	1,7
Израиль	8,0	2,0
Италия	11	2,2
Япония	8,2	2,3
Германия	9,1	2,5
Франция	13,6	2,8
Португалия	21	4,0
Польша	16,3	8.6
Турция	7,6	21
Юж. Корея	22	35

Согласно данным вышеприведенной таблицы, оказывается что рейтинг Израиля - по показателю безопасности автомобильных дорог - соответствует "среднеевропейскому" уровню (где-то между Голландией и Италией).

Дороги Израиля находятся практически точно в центре (в диапазоне +/- с отклонением 25%) того уровня коридора безопасности автомобильного движения, как и дороги США, которые в среднем на 25% безопаснее израильских, или Германии - немецкие дороги уже наоброт на 25% опаснее израильских оказываются.

С другими странами разница заметно большей оказывается: дороги государства Израиль в среднем на 40 процентов безопаснее оказываются улиц и автострад Франции, и в то же время на столько же опаснее автомобильных дорог Швеции, которая - следует видимо это обстоятельство отдельно здесь отметить - уже давно является мировым лидером по этому показателю. Достаточно сказать, что хотя первые ремни безопасности придумали еще в начале ХХ века группа американских врачей, но именно в Швеции появились те - "трех точек" крепления - ремни, которые теперь стали базовой нормой для узаконенного минимума средств безопасности в автомобилях всех стран мира.

В Восточной Европе ситуация по-видимому заметно иная. К примеру, более чем в 4 раза оказывается выше риск попасть в автодорожное происшествие с фатальным исходом в Польше, чем в Израиле.

________
Update: Thanks to mfi получил 2006-12-07 в комментах ссылку на более детально выписанную по годам статистику фатальных автопроисшествий в Израиле, которая - судя по общей тенденции с неё читаемой - дает дополнительные основания для осторожного оптимизма относительно состояния безопасности автомобильных дорог этой страны:

Число погибших в дорожно-транспортных происшествиях на дорогах Израиля

______________________________________________

Число дорожно-транспортных происшествий, в которых погиб хотя бы один человек

Source: Полиция Израиля: статистика и исследования

>как считают "пройденные в машине мили"?

>Просто имхо число погибших на 100 тысяч населения подостовернее будет чем на миллионы пройденных миль

Что случилось бы с авиакомпаниями, если бы каждую неделю разбивались по два-три Боинга? Между тем статистика автопроисшествий на Американских дорогах -- один человек гибнет каждые 13 минут -- дает именно такой (суммарно по числу погибших) итог еженедельно ...

1980’s. The Anti-lock Brake System (ABS) is introduced on passenger cars and is highly reliable thanks to new digitally controlled electronics, durable wheel speed sensors and quick-acting hydraulic control valves.

Traction Control System (TCS), an extension of ABS, also becomes popular. TCS keeps vehicles stable and easy to steer during drive-off and acceleration under all road conditions—a great relief to drivers everywhere!

Late 1990’s. Electronic Stability Control (ESC) systems incorporate the technologies of ABS and TCS but also improve the vehicle’s lateral stability. ESC further reduces the risk of skidding in all driving conditions—a revolutionary milestone in automotive safety!

http://www.esceducation.org/about_esc/esc_origins.shtml

but the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration reported last year that drivers and passengers in such vehicles were 11 percent more likely to be killed in a traffic accident than people in other kinds of cars because of the danger of rollovers.

The Christian Science Monitor (from the August 25, 2005 edition)

pargentum

Рис. 19. Относительная ошибка (в %) ежегодного прогноза журнала , «Электроника» в оценке объема продаж изделий вычислительной техники в США

Штрих пунктирная линия — лаг прогноза 0 — оценка объема продаж на год, предшествующий году публикации прогноза; сплошная — лаг прогноза 1 — оценка на год публикации прогноза; пунктирная — лаг прогноза 3 — оценка прогноза на 3 года вперед Рассчитано по: Электроника, NN1 за 1962—1983 гг.

На рис. 19 приводятся данные расчета относительной 1 ошибки текущего прогноза журнала «Электроника» по основному из публикуемых им показателей — суммарный объем продаж всей вычислительной техники на американском рынке (это сводный показатель, поэтому его нельзя «стасовать», заменив другими, но и погрешность его должна быть меньше, чем остальных, так как в нем суммируются все данные). Из рисунка видно, что погрешность прогноза на год публикаций, как правило, не менее 10%, на 3 года вперед—в пределах 20—60%.

Таким образом, в цифровых данных, свыше 20 лет приводимых в прогнозах журнала «Электроника», из 5 значащих цифр в лучшем случае при оценках могут учитываться не более одной — первой цифры.

Здесь уместно сослаться на точку зрения Ф. Джорджа (автора нашумевшего научного бестселлера 50-х годов «Конструкция мозга»): «Мы вовсе не предполагаем, что неточное описание следует предпочитать точному, мы лишь хотим сказать, что если описываемые факты не точны или паше знание о них не полно, то предпочтительней иметь точное описание степени их неточности» [105, с. 120]. Н. Винер высказывался в таких случаях более резко, считая, что приписывать «неопределенным по самой своей сути величинам какую-то особую точность бесполезно и нечестно» [106, с. 100].

Выше был приведен фрагмент одной из глав книги: Национальные информационные ресурсы: проблемы промышленной эксплуатации. Г.Р.Громов. Москва, Наука, 1984

В этой стране от 800 тыс. до 2 миллионов насильственных преступлений ежегодно предотвращается вооруженными гражданами.

we can be confident that in 1992 there were at least 140,710 nonfatal crime incidents in which offenders used guns...

Evidence suggests that this survey and other like overestimate the freuency with which firearms were used by private citizens to defend against criminal attack

Здесь уместно сослаться на точку зрения Ф. Джорджа ...: «Мы вовсе не предполагаем, что неточное описание следует предпочитать точному, мы лишь хотим сказать, что если описываемые факты не точны или паше знание о них не полно, то предпочтительней иметь точное описание степени их неточности» ... Н. Винер высказывался в таких случаях более резко, считая, что приписывать «неопределенным по самой своей сути величинам какую-то особую точность бесполезно и нечестно»

Национальные информационные ресурсы: ... Г.Р.Громов. Москва, Наука, 1984

drugoi

• mkay422: в Германии, ...на 100,000 населения гибнет 8 человек. В Штатах - 15.

... in a league table of eight developed states, only the US has lower [than UK] social mobility . Four Scandinavian countries, along with Canada, all have almost twice as much as the UK.
"Social mobility ..." by Malcolm Dean, May 3, 2006. The Guardian

"... в таблице из восьми промышленно развитых стран только США имеют меньший чем Англия уровень социальной мобильности. Четыре скандинавские страны, а также Канада, каждая имею почти вдвое больший чем Англия [и, соответственно, США тоже] уровень социальной мобильности."

Intergenerational Mobility in Europe and North America. By Jo Blanden, Paul Gregg and Stephen Machin, April 2005

- Jo Blanden and Stephen Machin are in the Department of Economics, University College London and Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics,
- Paul Gregg is in the Department of Economics, University of Bristol and Centre for Economic Performance, London School ofEconomics:


International comparisons of intergenerational mobility show that Britain, like the United States, is at the lower end of international comparisons of mobility...

The results ... that compare intergenerational mobility across the eight countries suggest a clear pattern. America and Britain have the highest intergenerational persistence (lowest mobility). Germany is around the middle of the estimates, while the Nordic countries and Canada all appear to be rather more mobile...

Thus the picture that emerges is that Northern Europe and Canada areparticularly mobile and that Britain and the US have the lowest intergenerational mobility across the European and North American countries studied here.

The USA is seen by some as a place with particularly high social mobility.... the idea of the US as ‘the land of opportunity’ persists; and clearly seems misplaced.

Примечание: Собирались данные только об уже сложившихся у граждан Америки семьях, которые таким образом не включают социального слоя первого поколения иммигрантов. Эта погрешность измерения - так полагал бы, хотя авторы исследования возможно имеют иную об том точку зрения - сбора статистистических данных возможно создает ситуацию, когда в целом выводы по социальнй мобильности в Америке окажутся с предвведенной погрешностью "в запас прочности", поскольку весьма заметная часть тех, кто проходит радикальную трансформацию своего социального статуса "из грязи в князи" - дети первого поколения иммигрантов.

Хотя - с другой стороны - ведь и в Европе похоже что тоже близким образом оценка оказывается смещенной "в запас по прочности" по той же самой причине - заметного в процентном отношении и там теперь тоже потока иммигрантов.</i>

The United States is a country based on the idea that a person's birth does not determine his or her destiny...

Today, ... we may still believe American society is uniquely dynamic, but we're deceiving ourselves. European societies, which seem more class riven and less open, have just as much social mobility as the United States does.

And there are some indications that it is becoming harder and harder for people to climb the ladder of success. The Economist magazine gathered much of the recent research on social mobility in America. The magazine concluded that the meritocracy is faltering: "Would-be Horatio Algers are finding it no easier to climb from rags to riches, while the children of the privileged have a greater chance of staying at the top of the social heap."

Economists and sociologists do not all agree, but it does seem there is at least slightly less movement across income quintiles than there was a few decades ago. Sons' income levels correlate more closely to those of their fathers. The income levels of brothers also correlate more closely. That suggests that the family you were born into matters more and more to how you will fare in life. That's a problem because we are not supposed to have a hereditary class structure in this country.

But we're developing one. In the information age, education matters more. In an age in which education matters more, family matters more, because as James Coleman established decades ago, family status shapes educational achievement...

It becomes harder for middle-class kids to compete against members of the hypercharged educated class. Indeed, the middle-class areas become more socially isolated from the highly educated areas.
NY Times, January 25, 2005

... к выкладкам ассистент-профессора г-на Хёрца. Первое, что я вижу на его вебсайте – это подборка фотографий. Тэкс, семья, ребенок, и... Нельсон Мандела.

Изучая сопротивление материалов,
не забывайте о сопротивлении буржуазии!
Сергей Миронович Киров

Примечание: По вопросам же критериев для исчисления градаций "одиозности" источников данных по обсуждаемой теме - см. http://abcdefgh.livejournal.com/653192.html?thread=2147208#t2147208