F History of the Internet and WWW -- Part 8: Statistics
  
Andy Grove, the boss of Intel, ... recently summed up the online pioneers’ attitude when asked about the return on investment (ROI) from his firm’s Internet ventures: “... This is Columbus in the New World. What was his ROI?”

by Christopher Anderson,              The Economist, 1997             

 

 Prehistory  | Internet | CERN | Next Step | Birth of Web | Hypertext | Living History  | Xanadu | Stats | Conclusion

History of Internet and WWW:
The Roads and Crossroads
of Internet  History
by  Gregory R. Gromov

 

 

 

 

 

 

"Subjects." There are no "subjects." Everything is deeply intertwingled.

Ted Nelson

 

Simplicity almost never happens by itself; it must be designed.

Ted Nelson

 

 

Lawrence G. Roberts

larry11gif.GIF (8546 bytes)

One of the leading founders of the basic technical basement of Internet - packet network: "... was responsible for the design, initiation, planning and development of ARPANET, the world’s first major packet network, the predecessor to Internet, while the Director of Information Processing Techniques for DARPA. After ARPA, ... founded the world’s first packet data comm carrier, Telenet, and was the CEO from 1973 to 1980. Telenet was sold to GTE in 1979 and subsequently became the data division of Sprint..."

 

Anthony M. Rutkowski

... global enterprise strategist, public official, organization leader, consultant, lecturer, and author in both the Internet and telecom worlds ...

Growth of the Internet: Statistics

The basic question: How many people are online worldwide as of August 2001... And the number is 513.41 million.

DATE NUMBER % POP SOURCE
August 2001 513.41 million 8.46 Nua Ltd
August 2000 368.54 million 6.07 Nua Ltd
August 1999 195.19 million 4.64 Nua Ltd
Sept 1998 147 million 3.6 Nua Ltd
November 1997 76 million 1.81 Reuters
December 1996 36 million .88 IDC
December 1995 16 million .39 IDC

World Total 513.41 million
Africa 4.15 million
Asia/Pacific 143.99 million
Europe 154.63 million
Middle East 4.65million
Canada & USA 180.68 million
Latin America 25.33 million


Compiled from:
Nua Internet Surveys

      Internet access (M) %'age world online pop. 2003 (est. in M) Total pop. (M) GDP ($B) %'age of world economy GDP per capita (K) Net Hosts
    English 228 40.2% 270 567 $13,812 33.4%    
    Non-English 339 59.8% 510 5633 $27,590 66.6%    
     
    European Languages
    (non-English)
    192.3 33.9% 259.3 1,218 $12,550 30.3%    
    Catalan 1.9   2.2 6.6        
    Czech 2.2   3 12 $53   $5.1 214
    Dutch 11.8 2.1% 13 23.6 $570   $24.2 2485
    Finnish 2.1   3.5 6 $127   $24.4 945
    French 22.0 3.9% 28 77 $1734 4.2% $21.5 2388
    German 38.6 6.8% 49 100 $2421 5.8% $24.9 3784
    Greek 1.6   3 12 $184   $16.9 182
    Hungarian 1.3   3 14.5 $96   $9.4 211
    Italian 20.2 3.6% 27 62 $1471 3.6% $24.7 2313
    Polish 6.7   8.5 44 $306   $7.8 654
    Portuguese 14.9 2.6% 26 176 $1472 3.6% $8.34 1909
    Romanian 0.8   1.2 26 $98   $4.4 69
    Russian 11.5 2.0% 15 167 $730 1.8% $5.0 415
         Danish 3.2     5.4 $176   $32.9 707
         Icelandic 0.2     .3 $6   $23.5 47
         Norwegian 2.5     5 $126   $27.7 630
         Swedish 6.2     9 $223   $22.3 1330
    Scandinavian languages (total) 12.0 2.1% 13 19.7 $525 1.3% 26.0 2714
    Slovak 0.7   1.5 5.6 $47   $8.7 69
    Slovenian 0.6   1 2 $22.9   $10.9 26
    Spanish 40.8 7.2% 53 350 $3684 8.9% $11.0 3241
    Turkish 3.9   7 67.4 $454   $6.7 140
    Ukranian 0.8   2 47 $115   $2.3 56
    TOTAL EUROPEAN LANGUAGES (excl. English) 192.3 33.9% 259 1,218 $14,112 33.9%   24,529
     
    ASIAN LANGUAGES                
    Arabic 4.4 0.8% 6 300 $678 1.6% $4.2 95
    Chinese 55.5 9.8% 125 874 $5370 13.0% $5.4 2388
    Hebrew 1.9   2.5 5.2 $132   $21.0 223
    Japanese 52.1 9.2% 75 125 $3,315 8.0% $26.1 7118
    Korean 25.2 4.4% 35 78 $835 2.0 $17.3 440
    Malay 4.8   7 229 $835 2.0% $3.7 95
    Thai 2.3   3 46 $453   $7.3 81
    TOTAL ASIAN LANGUAGES 146.2 26.1% 254        

    10,440

     
    TOTAL WORLD 560   762 6,200 $41,400      
    Source: Global Reach

    ISP Sources of Revenue: early beginning ...

1996

1997

1998

Internet Access

1.21

1.21

5.53

Web Hosting & Security

0.17

0.17

0.99

Electronic Commerce

0.01

0.01

0.24

        Revenue above:   In billions of dollars.    Source: Forrester Research,    Riggs, B (April 28, 1997) Hard Times for the Small ISP, LanTimes. 55-58 Online quote: The Internet: from Backbone to End-Use

 

Great AmeriNet Dream ... as it was just a couple of years ago:

... e-commerce sales could balloon to $37.5 billion this (1998 - ed.) year, according to market researcher Jupiter Communications in New York.
by   Jon Swartz, Jamie Beckett,  SF Chronicle, November 25, 1998

Projections for the year 2002 from Forrester and Jupiter currently range between USD200 to USD300 billion .

CEO of Cisco Systems, John Chambers   reckons that figure will be closer to 1 trillion . At Networld 98, industry analyst Nicholas Lippis announced that online commerce would generate USD1.5 trillion of US GDP by 2002.

Paradigm Shifts, Nua Internet Surveys,November 2nd 1998

 

and what happened in real life:

E-Commerce Growth Rates
and 2001 Monthly Spending

(U.S.)
Month Yearly
Growth

(2000-2001)
2001 Monthly
Spending

(billions)
April 73.1% $4.5
May 103.5% $5.4
June 71.2% $5.3
July 39.0% $4.9
August 57.2% $5.6
September 53.7% $4.7
October 25.0% $4.6
November 10.1% $5.3
Source: Nielsen//NetRatings and Harris Interactive

$13.8 billion spent online during the 2001 holiday season

New York and Rochester, NY, January 7, 2002—Over the eight weeks of November and December, Americans spent $13.8 billion online. A Goldman Sachs, Harris Interactive SM, and Nielsen//NetRatings (www.nielsen-netratings.com) eSpending report revealed this latest economic information. In comparison, $12 billion was spent during the 2000 holiday season

“Online holiday spending continued its growth, despite pressures from the slowing U.S. economy.

Source: Business Channels

 

Number of the Web pages in July 1998:   300 millions,
1.5 Million Web Pages Born Daily,
50% of all traffic goes to the top 900 Web sites currently available.
     by Alexa Internet, InternetWorld online, 31-Aug-1998 10:08:46 EDT, 

Percentage increase in Internet traffic, per month: 30

- Number of security incidents reported to the Computer Emergency Response Team Coordination Center in 1995:   2412
- Number reported in 1988:   6

Number of Internet Service Providers (ISPs) in the U.S. and Canada, in August, 1997: 4,133

Number of ISP, worldwide in July, 1996: 3,054

Average number of customers at an ISP: 1,850
          Data source: Win Trees

 

The Stats Map of Net History

30 Years of theNet History in Brief Stats Story

Date  Hosts Domains* WebSites WHR(%)**
Jul 01 126,000,000 30,000,000 28.200,000 22.0
Jul 98 37,000,000     4,300,000 4,270,000 12.0
Jul 97 19,540,000   1,301,000 1,200,000 6.2
Jul 96 12,881,000       488,000  300,000 2.3
Jul 95 6,642,000      120,000 25,000 0.4
Jul 94 3,212,000         46,000 3,000 0.1
Jul 93 1,776,000          26,000 150 0.01
Jul 92 992,000         16,300 50 0.005
Jul 89 130,000           3,900 -
Jul 81 210
1969 4

Gregory Gromov 1996-2002

Data sources: Network Wizards (US), Dr A D Marshall (UK) and some of the Netvalley estimations

*/ The total number of the all types of Domains (commercial -- com.; non-profit organizations -- org.; educational ... --- edu.; ... etc.)
**/The WebSites to Hosts Ratio (WHR):

WHR
estimates the percent  of content active  part of Net community.  By other words, WHR reflects what is the percent of Web surfing people that are trying to  become the  Web authors by creating their own Web sites. So we ( - G.R.G) consider the WHR as a
creative temperature of  Web

 



"...40 percent of global Internet traffic either originated or terminating in California."
Pacific Bell - December, 1995



 ... traffic over the Internet
  doubling every 100 days

By Frances Hong, Internet Capacity Major Theme For 1999 - Study, NEW YORK (Reuters), December 6, 1998

Net traffic will quadruple in   2001 

Larry Roberts, Forbes, December 10, 2001

Internet traffic grew more than 100% in 2001
from 48 PB/month to 100 PB/month and
this growth continues in 2002.

Majority of users -- 84%, according to the National Telecommunications and Information Administration's report: A Nation Online, Feb 2002 -- connecting to the Internet for email or instant messaging services...
- by John Ryan of RHK, Inc. 2002

Internet Traffic Growth by Larry Roberts 

web-trafic-!!!-1117-2.JPG (34281

































                bytes)

-Traffic is for US backbone network, not including local calls, for both Internet and PSTN;
-Traffic growth is higher than host growth because the traffic/host ratio growth at 14 percentage per year

 

... more data than voice conversations now take place daily on British Telecommunications Plc's domestic network ...   traditional telephone calls were being replaced by electronic mail (e-mail) ... ... increased use of e-mail, electronic commerce (e-commerce) and multimedia services in addition to conventional and mobile telephony would double the size of the British communications market from its current $49.62 billion within five years ...

Yahoo! News: Technology Headlines, November 5, 1998

 

Internet Hosts by Tony Rutkowski
The Host means iniquely reachable Internet connected computer

Hosts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The picture above  is  the slide of the Internet Trends' collection --
one of the most impressive of Internet stats related slide collections I've ever seen.

Check it out!

 

Why Hosts?

Because there is not any other ways to count the Internet populations at all: "No one has any clue how many users there are, but most people would agree that there is at least one user per host."

    Internet Domain Survey. The Nua Ltd. and others's quote.

     

    You might want to take a look on some  of the illustrations of the above suggestion:

    Estimated number of web users in the U.S.: 57,037,000  by  Win Treese , May 1998

        ...the active number of Internet users in the United States is only 37 million, well below the widely reported range of 50 million to 70 million seen in most published reports.
        Bits & Bytes, by Michael Bush ,
        July, 1998

        ... about 15 million of the total 23 million U.S. households on the Internet receive their online service through AOL.
        AOL Eyes Half Of All New Online Users, September, 1998

    So, according to " Irresponsible Internet Statistics...",
    ... there is no absolute way to measure any statistic regarding the growth of the Internet. As John Quarterman of MIDS says:

        The Internet is distributed by nature. This is its strongest feature, since no single entity is in control, and its pieces run themselves, cooperating to form the network of networks that is the Internet. However, because no single entity is control, nobody knows everything about the Internet. Measuring it is especially hard because some parts choose to limit access to themselves to various degrees. So, instead of measurement, we have various forms of surveying and estimation.


    So all the statistics presented here are based on estimates and conjecture. And even if they were absolutely true, growth rates change. I (Robert Orenstein) read somewhere (if you know where I saw this, please tell me) that there is only one conclusion that can possibly be drawn from such vague data:

    The Internet is getting big,
    and it's happening fast.

"The Internet is getting big, ...".   
Do we still believe that the bigger is   better?

  Percentage of U.S. public schools connected to the Internet
1994 35
1996 65

Data source: Win Trees

      "In a poll taken early last year (1996 -ed.) U.S. teachers ranked computer skills and media technology as more "essential" than the study of European history, biology, chemistry, and physics; than dealing with social problems such as drugs and family breakdown; than learning practical job skills; and than reading modern American writers such as Steinbeck and Hemingway or classic ones such as Plato and Shakespeare.

      ... The Kittridge Street Elementary School, in Los Angeles, killed its music program last year to hire a technology coordinator; ... Mansfield, Massachusetts, administrators dropped proposed teaching positions in art, music, and physical education, and then spent $333,000 on computers;  in one Virginia school the art room was turned into a computer laboratory. (Ironically, a half dozen preliminary studies recently suggested that music and art classes may build the physical size of a child's brain, and its powers for subjects such as language, math, science, and engineering -- in one case far more than computer work did.) ...

      The Computer Delusion ,  by Todd Oppenheimer,
      The Atlantic Monthly; July 1997

       

Check your knowledge!


Warning! This is a special kind of test for the very small group of Web surfing people. The members of this group should be able to provide us with local ISP's offically proven certificates concerning  their top IQ level. We also accept Visa, MasterCard, American Express, MS InterDev and some of the Novell, Sun, IBM and Oracle, (we are constantly expanding the List) basic products certificates of Net proficiency.

Who coined the  phrases:

Web might be better than sex

information superhighway WorldWideWeb Hypertext
Sylvester Stallone
Bob Metcalfe
Al Gore
Ted Nelson
Tim Berners-Lee
Mark Andressen

Copyright  1995-2011 G. Gromov 

 First of all you might want to check the boxes in some of the table's cells according to your personal feelings or Net History knowledge based choices. After the most hard working "check-box" step of this test will be successfully completed, you would be able ... relax for a couple of minutes and than... take a look on the   real version   of above mentioned table to compare the real Net History facts with your recent feelings and choices.

Go To the next Page: next Page

    Prehistory  | Internet | CERN | Next Step | Birth of Web | Hypertext | Living History  | Xanadu | Stats | Conclusion

The Index:
  • Prehistory of the Internet
  • Internet Before World Wide Web
  • World Wide Web as a Side Effect of Particle Physics Experiments.
  • Next Crossroad of World Wide Web History
  • Birth of the World Wide Web
  • Early History of Hypertext
  • "Living History" of Hypertext.
  • Xanadu Plan
  • Growth of the Internet: Statistics
  • Conclusion
  • Suggestions, thoughts, questions? Contact us...
    Copyright 1995-2011 Gregory Gromov

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

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    Who ...

    ... and when

    ...coined the phrases:

    What else was done:

    Ted Nelson

    1965

    Hypertext Hypertext basic concepts
    Al Gore

    1981

    "information superhighway" Global Information Infrastructure
    Tim Berners-Lee

    1990

    WorldWideWeb WWW proposal, basic concepts, protocol s, prototype versions
    Bob Metcalfe

    1995

    "Web might be better than sex" Ethernet, 3Com

    Copyright 1998 G.Gromov 










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